Social_challenges_facing_Latvia

Arturs Puga

Social challenges facing Latvia:
problems of identification

Manuscript (2003)

Introduction Towards identification of the knowledge society Foresight as a method and culture for change
Rethinking the role of the social sciences Epilogue

2. Foresight as a method and culture for change

We are going back to the questions about endeavouring motivation for change that were set in the beginning of this article. As was discussed above, futures studies are the instrument for the knowledge-driven economy and sustainable development. What would be the way to start serious foresight activities - a practice almost unknown in our country? "Hundreds, sometimes thousands of people are involved in these exercises, and are drawn from a wide variety of backgrounds, often within the same exercise. These individuals are looking to anticipate future changes in their living and working environments.[..] Through this increased strategic knowledge, participants in Foresight exercises hope to develop agility within an increasingly uncertain world."⁽²⁵⁾ We just looked at the EUROFORE pilot project. One of the main objectives set for this initiative was to identify and characterise, and to map around 80 foresight exercises across the EU and a selection of Candidate Countries (two exercises in the Czech Republic, three in Estonia, one in Hungary, three in Slovenia, four in Turkey) during the last decade. Reflecting this fraction of European foresight, the project represents a successful step in the building of a knowledge platform for a new type of activities. The EUROFORE project has resulted in the construction of a database of mapped foresight exercises, organisations, and individuals, useful for both learning and monitoring. The indicator set to "capture" the essence of a variety of foresight activities has been developed for the database, and it is freely accessible for everyone at http://les.man.ac.uk/eurofore/. The EUROFORE project would be extended to cover the foresight of all countries of an enlarged EU ⁽²⁶⁾.

Up to now, a general response of high persons in Latvia is : let the future be a field of discussions and experiments by policy-makers and, to a small extent, also by academia. The reason is that the state budget is short, and, what is particularly important, ordinary people from various social strata are not ready for foresight. To say, competences and capacity are not enough for such activities in Latvia.

The official attitude towards a set of national values is revealed in the Report on the Economic Development of Latvia.⁽²⁷⁾. The priorities declared by the government headed by the Prime Minister Mr. E. Repše are:

- sound and efficient public administration;
- fully-fledged membership of Latvia in the decision-making processes of NATO and the European Union;
- strong and independent judicial power; corruption and crime prevention;
- information society and knowledge-based economy;
- health quality of the society;
- integrated civic society, strong modern national identity;
- balanced development of Latvia's regions, high employment level.⁽²⁸⁾

In the author's opinion, among these priorities, the orientation for national and regional foresight exercises in Latvia should be included.

Let us travel back in time to Brussels. The challenges of the digital age, global competitiveness, and sustainable development alongside with the outputs of technological foresight, and both the inspiration by European humanism and by values of the European Communities - all this put on agenda a new paradigm. The outputs of the strategic thinking of the 1990's, including foresight on a European enlargement, have been presented at the Lisbon Council to define the strategy-2010 for an ambitious renewal. Perhaps not everyone in governments and academia, in businesses and other sectors, have comprehended the essence of this long-term European movement.

The new strategy meets certain specific challenges for the EU as: "Why are young people shunning science? How can taste for research be restored? What can be done to stop the brain drain?" ⁽²⁹⁾ There is understanding in Europe that to a degree, the sciences are isolated, removed from culture, excluded from debates, marginalised in media. There is an urgent need to work together to reintegrate sciences in society, start a new dialog between scientists and citizens, between various sorts of stakeholders. ⁽³⁰⁾ Answering the above questions, European Commissioner for Research Phillipe Busquin pointed out that teaching had become too theoretical, in a way too mathematical, and we must now make an effort to include the intuitive dimension.⁽³¹⁾

Foresight is not science. It implies a combination of the following elements: intuition, methods, anticipatory analysis, and trends of development. "Foresight is very important because it forces you to think out of the box." Different players, involved in foresight exercises, may not usually collaborate, and a participatory style brings a new spirit to discussions. ⁽³²⁾ The knowledge society of the 21st century, that is impeded by inertia, should be created by instruments of new democratic values and there the aspect of foresight is crucial. European experts point out:

"Due to accelerated social and technological change, a new culture of future-oriented thinking in society is needed. Decision makers need to acquire new skills in the face of declining role of traditional value systems and the erosion of traditional interest groups combined with calls for more accountability and accelerated technological change. This new culture should focus on producing a strategic framework for better-informed policies, based upon transparent, participatory and flexible decision-making in the face of complex challenges."
Thinking, debating and shaping the future. Final report. Prepared by a HLEG on "Developing foresight to strengthen the strategic basis of the ERA" for the European Commission. p.10. ⁽³³⁾

Reconsidering the future of Latvia, we should cross the Atlantic. Alongside with the national security and military developments it is crucial for Latvia to take into account American foresight. Seymor Papert from Massachusetts Institute of Technology urges us to believe that the role of invention of digital technologies will be as important and overwhelming as was that of writing - paper and pencil. ⁽³⁴⁾ The challenge also for Americans is to rethink a paradigm shift providing that digital technologies should not be used only as a source of information, but, more important, as a building material. ICT make possible the construction of things to a complexity that was previously unimaginable - exactly what foresight does and for what a foresight culture is being developed. Unfortunately, "what our schools are learning to do with this technology is not to use it for radical change in teaching but to use it to support what has already been done in the 20th century learning", concludes S.Papert. ⁽³⁵⁾ The constructional side of digital technologies is more radical and involves more changes, so it is not surprising that many people prefer to focus on the informational side.

So, the proposal for the European Research Area, made in early 2000, had some key features of an exercise in foresight. Specific European policies as the Lisbon Strategy, the development of the ERA, and the reform of European Governance call for a greater and more co-ordinated attention to foresight thinking.⁽³⁶⁾ For our nation a question remains: what could we do in this context? This article provides one way out of dozens.

The recent publication of the Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight adds a powerful guidance for foresight exercises in Europe. The establishment of the Foresight Unit has been emphasised in the book as one of subjects serving as a possible repository of knowledge and agent for training and advice. It may organise small-scale foresight exercises and provide training activities for particular sets of users. The Unit can support network activities, organise meetings of stakeholders, "to maintain Foresight activities in a given community" in the long run. ⁽³⁷⁾ The paper, included in this collection of articles on Latvia's future, provides insight into activities performed by the Forward Studies Unit ⁽³⁸⁾ affiliated to the Latvian Union of Scientists. In February 2003, the Board of the LUS adopted the programme proposal of its members to establish the Forward Studies Unit, to start futures studies and foresight activities and to become involved in European research. Since its beginning, the Forward Studies Unit, LUS has been, in fact, a community of practice conducting studies, publications, and dissemination of information free of charge.

Probably, soon in Latvia - like in the EU countries - social and economic actors will discover the benefits of communities of practice.⁽³⁹⁾ Such informal groups from various fields of enquiry around a company gather to share ideas and brainstorm, identify the best practices, exercise in fast "mini-foresights," etc. Some communities of practice extend far beyond the organisation's boundaries; they are mechanisms for enhancement and use of social capital, closely related to knowledge management issues in the digital world.⁽⁴⁰⁾

"Latvia towards the Knowledge Societies of Europe: New options for entrepreneurship and employment achieving the goals of the Lisbon strategy" is a project initiated by the Forward Studies Unit, LUS in the summer of 2003. It is aimed at research and interpretation to Latvian citizens of new options arising from the European studies and policies. In a broader sense, it deals with reconsideration of issues of Latvia's social transformation from the post communism to the knowledge society. The project includes some foresight exercises for the target groups to discover and apply foresight philosophy, methods, and outputs for capabilities increasing knowledge, employment, and business sustainability. The initiative focuses on networking of stakeholders in the field of enquiry, providing on the project website opportunities for transparent, participatory, and flexible discussion between researchers and citizens.

The author believes in the development of foresight that is closely interconnected with other issues of paradigm shift processes in the European Latvia

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25. Mapping Foresight Competence in Europe: the EUROFORE Pilot project. A joint JRC/IPTS-ESTO study. IPTS Technical Report Series, EUR 20755 EN. Compiled and edited by Michael Keenan, Dan Abbott (PREST), Fabiana Scapolo, Mario Zappacosta (IPTS). EC, 2003. p.2. http://www.jrc.es/home/publications/publication.cfm?pub=1102

26. Ibid, p.3-4.

27. See: the Report on website of the Ministry of Economics of Latvia http://www.em.gov.lv/.

28. Ibid, p. 10.

29. The tribulations of science. Editorial.; Improving science's image. European Research Commissioner Philippe Busquin explains how he sees the situation. RTD info. Special edition - Science and young people. EC, November 2001. http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/rtdinfo/pdf/rtdspecial-jeunes_en.pdf

30. Ibid.

31. Ibid.

32. See: Ducatel K.(JRC-IPTS). Rationales for Foresight. Presentation. Regional Foresight Training Methods Workshop. Ispra, 26-28 May 2003. http://www.jrc.es/projects/foresightacademy/docs/JRCMKRationales.ppt ; Caracostas P. European Dimension. Vision. (A newspaper of the Foresight and LINK initiatives) Winter 2002. Issue #4. http://www.ost.gov.uk/link/news/issue04/story01/

33. See: ftp://ftp.cordis.lu/pub/rtd2002/docs/report_hleg_20426final.pdf

34. Papert S. (Media Lab. Massachusetts Institute of Technology). Why are Schools Afraid of Digital Technology? http://www.elearningeuropa.info/doc.php?lng=1&id=1424&doclng=1

36. Ibid.