1. Shifting paradigm through accession
to Europe:
towards identification of the knowledge
society
Challenging a paradigm is not part-time
work
Donella H. Meadows
Are there questionnaire surveys available on what do medium-term, 10 to 15 years forward oriented, solid projections mean for a man who looks at his "book" of private and working life? What would the role of such surveys be in the life of both an individual and the society, endeavouring to make significant improvements in the well-being of people, based on socio-economic and cultural changes? As it is argued in foresight exercises, "we cannot plan the future, but we can certainly plan for future." (6) Europeans differ in their approach to the futures studies and foresight. The UK is one case while Latvia is quite another. In Latvia, there are no publications with objectives defined like the following: "This publication aims to help you start the process of planning for the longer term. It provides you with four alternative scenarios of change in the UK over the next 20 to 30 years against which you can test your business strategies." (7)
Let us choose 2003 as a point when we have remembered to look forward. By the adopted methodology, our research on social challenges should begin with systematic thinking.
Making a rush for the Millennium, the world system experienced a medium-strength earthquake and changes in socio-economic orientations. By a stroke of inspiration, the Central and East European countries (CEEC) obtained the power to reshape their destiny to be in line with the old experienced Europe, and to meet collectively the more or less predictable challenges of computerisation and globalisation. Joining the EU and the NATO completes a turnaround of the restored democracies in Europe. They become a part of a "system of modern societies" analysed by the eminent American theorist Talcott Parsons in the 1940-1970's.(8)
Presently, we have an information society that provides a platform for transition to a knowledge-based society. Using definitions cannot be fruitful without personal knowledge "computing" embedded in a systematic approach. "If you are challenged by someone, they ask you who you are and why you are in a particular place", runs the English dictionary providing a good sample of an information system.(9) By formal logic, citizens - including researchers, policy-makers, and bureaucracy - have not ignore systematic approach stemming from the natural quality of their brain-mind system (10), whether they consider sustainable national or local development issues, or merely personal ones. To know how our society, as a system, is constituted - integrating into Western democracies - is a challenge for us. Research activities to identify, understand, and interpret structures, their interconnections, and interdependence along with expertises on driving forces and changes are foreseeable innovations for advanced studies, aimed at a reasonable understanding of Latvia's future. (11)
But first, the knowledge society should break through the clouds of the post-communist paradigm. Until 2003, the socio-economic background studies, embedded in an overall systematic approach, seemed an unattractive area for policy-makers and some other privileged stakeholders in the CEEC. Such political attitude is an important reason - although, perhaps not the decisive one - why the Information Society in the Candidate Countries "has received up till now little or no academic attention." (12)
In the realm of both academic studies and official reports, prepared and used for the Latvia's accession negotiations, one can find investigated sectors as well as "black holes" combining significant gains with important but ignored aspects of a social system. As a result, the appeal addressed to everyone - to creatively participate in the development of the Latvian dimension of the knowledge-based societies of Europe - does not constitute an inspiring factor for transition yet. An individual's mind identifies a lot of cages where his interests, orientations, endeavours, including lifelong learning potential, are trapped in. Many citizens believe that from government-society-science none is striving to open the cages in order to let human spirit fly high addressing societal changes in the naturally interconnected and structured world. (13)
The world community has approved the efforts of the Latvian people to return to the democratic Western civilisation. Reforms implemented in Latvia and integration in the EU have a significant effect on the economic development. In the recent years, the country has become one of the fastest-growing economies in Europe.(14) But we must also remember the decline level from which growth has started up. A majority of Latvians are both proud of joining the EU and also afraid of a new citizenship, since they do not understand exactly which prospects and options are available for them and not only for the ruling strata for the improving living conditions and economic well-being. Our society faces a crucial problem: how to identify the Lisbon process and reach for its objectives in every day's activities that is imperative for national sustainability. Sometimes it appears that the ruling elite does not recognise the distinguishing characteristics of the knowledge society as true variables.(15)
The core of our backwardness lies not in the lack of identifiability of elements and issues of the knowledge society-2010, but, instead, of willingness to manage transition towards a sustainable society. The case of Latvia, perhaps, may be compared with that of some other CEE countries. Therefore, we need more joint actions with Europe. See one of them. "Providing a sound scientific base for the management of the transition towards a European knowledge-based society, conditioned by national, regional and local policies and by decision making by individual citizens, families and other societal units" - these are the main objectives of the EU Sixth Framework Programme's (2002-2006) thematic priority "Citizens and Governance in a Knowledge-based society". The indicative budget allocated for this priority is 225 million EUR. (16)
European citizens are interested in co-operation in their striving to achieve the objectives of creating an identifiable style for a knowledge-based economy. In the author's opinion, the time has come to join the efforts of stakeholders from various countries and the EU bodies to work out a research consortium. New comparative studies would be aimed at the theory, methods, and applied research (including foresight activities) for systematic studies of a knowledge-based society in the New Member States.
No intellectual goal is achievable without understanding of broad and deep issues of the civilisation river. If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favourable, said the ancient Romans. In the medium-term future, a challenge for an individual will be the identification, understanding, and interpretation of a set of characteristics of the knowledge society for our every day's needs and activities.
The author of the paper supports the concept that "a useful way of thinking of a Knowledge Society is that it involves an intersection of several related trends" (17) We prefer to cite them because the following conceptual set means one of the cornerstones of foresight methodology in our research. (18)
(1) The development of information societies based on a large-scale diffusion and utilisation of new Information technologies (IT), which have allowed for unprecedented capabilities in "capturing", procession, storing, and communicating data and information.On the threshold of accession to the EU, the Latvians have come to the conclusion that their economic and social situation, compared with that of the Members and other Candidate Countries of the EU, is a quite unpleasing one.(19) Looking for the roots of the main trends in the economic development, it is worth studying the visions on Latvian futures clearly outlined by Eduards Bruno Deksnis in the late 1990's. (20) To date, from the research on economic scenarios performed in 2003, a futurist can conclude that there are three main ways out of the situation. Actually, these could be designed by the Latvians themselves, and, speaking philosophically, these could be "the servants," or "the cheats," or the innovative and re-skilled humans in an emerging e-world.
The action plan eEurope 2005, proposing activities to provide adults with the key skills needed for a knowledge society, emphasises the advantages of e-learning. The action plan deals with an important field of studies and sets the priorities. Information systems (IS) are essential tools for the re-skilling aimed at the improvement of employability and overall quality of life. IS include the two major technologies: computation and communication. In Latvia, the costs of both have not fallen during the last years, and are high in comparison with the European level.(21) We see a daunting social challenge with more and more alarming signals about a widening gap between the emerging knowledge-based societies of Europe. Lifelong learning, re-skilling, e-learning - these issues in the Latvian spring of European river flow too slowly. A day may come when we find ourselves dressed in colourful folk costumes on the beautiful peninsula, and situated in a lovely reservation and making money from singing and dancing.
Latvia remains almost the only country in the enlarging Europe without national foresight. Responsible persons and institutions do not follow the kind invitation from Europe for Latvia to become involved in such a type of activities. National foresight - thinking, debating, and shaping the nation's future - should be considered as an important approach towards the information society.
Since the end of the 19th century, Latvians have ranked themselves among well-educated nations. Our people managed to be in the centre of historical changes in Europe in the 20th century. While accessing the European Union, Latvians have to reconsider the role of historical data for the society. Emphases on previous national achievements and the remembrance of resistance to invaders are to be the most important factors for social and cultural renewal. However, there is the pressing problem of reasonable proportions: either we devote all the more attention to futures studies, or we risk being late for the advancing world. To add, a number of global actors conduct processes not quite in the same way as they did in the 1990's - more seldom they look back on the history looking for new approaches.
On the way towards the knowledge society, a critical role belongs to the language both as a pivotal element of the system devoted to the recognition of world and the information system by itself. The Latvian language (the ancient Baltic branch of the Indo-European language group) has experienced various periods of national cultural development during the two last centuries. Viability and creative nature of the language has been suppressed to a large extent behind the "iron curtain" when access was restricted to international language discussions flourishing in the context of the information revolution. During the return to Europe, the development of the Latvian language has been conditioned by the needs of the new ruling strata of the 1990's. The main function of the Latvian language has been seen in the practice to continue producing "coined", often complicated elements and structures for legal needs and inter-bureaucratic communication. Budget allocations for language modernisation were small. Rethinking realities, while joining the EU, implies a critical look at the future of the Latvian language. Failure to modernise the language system could decrease the capability to recognise and interpret the new knowledge both in tacit and codified lines in the e-age when the re-skilling of competencies grows with every moment.
In the conditions of Latvia, it is not a surprise that in a discussion on allocations of the state budget for 2003 between the minister of finance and the former minister of economics (the opposition), while speaking about figures and fields of national economy, the terms "science" and "research" have not been even mentioned.(22)
Lifelong learning for all in its interconnections with science and technology lies at the heart of the Lisbon strategy for making Europe a rewarding place to live and work in the e-age.(23) Here we agree on the statement that lifelong learning supports the economy and the society at the same time, it benefits individuals as well as the community, helps people to cope with social changes and labour market demands, as well as to improve job prospects, take their lives into their own hands. These opportunities should be provided in a variety of ways to suit their differing backgrounds, needs, and preferences. The first Euro barometer that asked citizens about lifelong learning in a detailed way indicated that eight of ten citizens of the EU support an integrated approach to lifelong learning that combines employability, personal development, active citizenship, and social cohesion.(24) The author of this article believes that, after accession to the European Union, learning for people in Latvia will be an essential part of the process aimed at turning dreams into an effective educational and training practise.
Conclusions.
Approach to the knowledge society as a reality in Europe should receive legitimisation in minds, open discussions, and creative activities of individuals, companies, and governmental structures of Latvia. For the medium-term future,· systematic thinking,
· knowledge management,
· lifelong learning,
· e-learning,
· adaptation of the Latvian language for the knowledge societyprovide both unexplored and critical challenges. Setting the objectives to meet them adequately is a task embedded in all the aspects of the national system for sustainable development.
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7. Foresight Futures 2020: Revised Scenarios and Guidance. [London]: Department of Trade and Industry, September 2002. p. 2. http://www.foresight.gov.uk/servlet/Controller/ver%3D850/DFI_FF_web.pdf
10. See: Slaughter, R. A. Futures Studies: From Individual to Social Capacity. http://www.metafuture.org/articlesbycolleagues/RichardSlaughter/Social_Capacity.htm ; Meadows, D.H. Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System. The Sustainability Institute, 1999. http://www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/pubs/Leverage_Points.pdf
11. It might be useful to interpret the situation in terms of challenges: to identify the critical challenges that should set the main thematic orientation of both the strategic futures and the foresight exercise. Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight. p. 51.
12. Building the Information Society in Candidate Countries? A prospective analysis on potential trajectories to realise the Lisbon goals. IPTS Experts Workshop Report. EC, June 2003, Prologue, p. 3. ftp://ftp.jrc.es/pub/EURdoc/eur20754en.pdf
13. See: Laķis, P. Ideoloģija, kultūra, izglītība, zinātne Latvijā. Grām.: Sociālekonomiskā procesa trajektorija Latvijā laikā no 1985. līdz 2002. gadam: Kur tā ved Latviju?: Zinātnisks pētījums. Ventspils Augstskola, 2002. 285.-293. lpp.; Vanags, A., Piņķe, G. Latvijas ekonomiskā attīstība salīdzinājumā ar citām ES kandidātvalstīm. Ibid., 121.-135. lpp.; Ziverte, L., Jansone, D. Social sector development in Latvia. In: The impact of decentralization of social policy in Hungary, Latvia and Ukraine. Open Society Institute, 2002, pp.151-152.
14. Ministry of Economics. Report on Economic Development of Latvia, Riga, June 2003. Available from: http://www.em.gov.lv/; Latvija: No vīzijas uz darbību. Ilgtspējīgas attīstības koncepcija. Rīga, 2000; SIA Konsorts. Latvijas ekonomikas attīstības iespējamie scenāriji, iestājoties vai neiestājoties Eiropas Savienībā. Pētījums. Ekspertu grupas vadītājs U. Osis. Rīga, 2003.
16. FP6 Specific Programme "Integrating and Strengthening the European Research Area." Priority 7: Citizens and Governance in a Knowledge-based Society. Work Programme 2002-2003. See: http://www.cordis.lu/fp6/citizens.htm , http://www.cordis.lu/citizens/citizens.htm
17. See: Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight, p. 10-17.
18. This concept (Handbook of Knowledge Society, pp.10-11) provided a background for the report "European Foresight towards Sustainable Development" which was delivered by the author at the international conference "Conditions of Sustainable Development: New Challenges and Prospects" (Riga, The Banking Institution of Higher Education, 10 September, 2003). The presentation available: http://forsaita-studijas.org/forwardstudies/fsd.pps
21. See: Šutko,V. Internets - sabiedrības dzīves vide / Referāts konferencē "Informācijas sabiedrība - kā veidosim to?(Rīgā, 2002.g. 13.septembrī); Esošā situācija Latvijas Interneta tirgū. Vadlīnijas Interneta un Informācijas sabiedrības attīstībai Latvijā. Pasūtītājs LR Satiksmes ministrijas Informācijas departaments, Izpildītājs Latvijas Interneta asociācija. Rīga, 2003. Available at: http://www.sam.gov.lv/branches/informatics/projects/
23. Reding, V.(European Commissioner Education and Culture). Preface in Lifelong Learning: Citizens' Views. Cedefob. EU, 2003. http://www.cedefop.eu.int/download/current_act/4025_en.pdf